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USD/JPY Stays Resilient Despite Tepid Inflation

CPI data came in for the US today, and it was underwhelming. The headline and core reading both came in 0.1% in July compared to June. They were both just below the average forecasts that called for prints around 0.2%. CPI in June was up 0.3% while the core reading was up 0.2%. So we have a slight disappointment in the most recent CPI data. How did the USD take it?

After an initial bearish reaction, the USD appears to have strengthened after the inflation data. Let's take a look at the USD/JPY as an example.

USD/JPY 1H Chart 8/19
(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows a market that has been consolidating sideways roughly between 124.06 and 124.63. After the inflation data, price dipped to 124.06 but rebounded sharply and is advancing towards the consolidation resistance. The ability to shrug this CPI data is a sign that the USD/JPY is still bullish.

FOMC Minutes: 
Now, the bullish outlook might still have a challenge today in the form of the FOMC minutes to be released 2:00PM ET. If the market interprets the minutes to be more dovish and wants to price out of a year-end rate hike, we might see USD/JPY slide. A break below 124.00 today should open up further bearish correction at least in the short-term, with the 123.00 handle in sight. Below 123.00, the pair might open up the 120.40 July-low. 

On the other hand, if USD/JPY can break above 124.65 after the minutes, we might be looking at a bullish continuation with the recent high of 125.28 and the 2015-high of 125.85 in sight. We should also anticipate further upside risk because this is in the direction of the prevailing trend since 2012.