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ARIAD (ARIA) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will the Stock Surprise?

ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ARIA is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 10, before the opening bell. The company posted a negative earnings surprise of 14.29% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Let’s see how things are shaping up for the first quarter.

Factors at Play

Leukemia drug, Iclusig, is the company’s sole marketed product. ARIAD expects Iclusig revenues to grow to $190 million - $200 million in 2016 from $112.5 million in 2015. Sales should be driven by continued demand and new patient additions and launch in additional territories.

ARIAD continues to work on focusing its promotional efforts on third-line chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia patients. The company is also working on studying Iclusig in earlier lines of therapy.

ARIAD is also working on achieving cost efficiencies and resource reallocation to areas of business that bring the most value. In late Mar 2016, the company announced a restructuring program under which 25% of its headquarter positions will be cut. The workforce reduction is a part of the company’s ongoing strategic review.

The company is also reviewing current and potential new development programs with the view to prioritize the programs that will generate maximum value to patients and shareholders. ARIAD is exploring business development opportunities as well.

Although the company had previously stated that it will complete its strategic review in the second quarter, investors will nevertheless be interested in knowing ARIAD’s progress so far in this matter.

Surprise History

ARIAD’s performance so far has been disappointing with the company missing expectations in each of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 19.20%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that ARIAD is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell): Note that stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, #2 and #3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell-rated stocks (#4 and #5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few other health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for Celsion Corp. CLSN is +4.35% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 10.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals JAZZ has an Earnings ESP of +6.11% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. It will be reporting first-quarter results on May 10.

The Earnings ESP for Chiasma, Inc. CHMA is +4.76% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 11.

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CELSION CORP (CLSN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ARIAD PHARMA (ARIA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
JAZZ PHARMACEUT (JAZZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHIASMA INC (CHMA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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