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EUR/USD Jumps Up from a Double Bottom after FOMC Minutes

Talk about a whip-lash type of day for the USD!. We saw initial bearish reaction to the CPI turn into strength. But just ahead of the official FOMC minutes release, the USD became weak again. 

First the CPI was mostly neutral, perhaps slightly disappointing. The silver lining from the details is that there as some wage growth. Now, the FOMC minutes was leaked, and got the market moving before 2:00PM ET. The minutes didn't show me anything special. It has similar language to its prior statements. Perhaps the fact that it is not becoming MORE hawkish is a sign that the FOMC is not confident about raising rates by the end of this year. On the other hand, it does say that conditions for a rate hike is nearing. 

Business Insider has a nice short assessment of the minutes.

Now let's take a look at the EUR/USD, which was threatening to complete a double bottom before the minutes. 

EUR/USD 1H chart 8/19
(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows that so far, the reactions to today's fundamentals as a whole appears bullish. It completed a double bottom, pushed price above the cluster of 200-, 100- and 50-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) and pushed the 1h RSI to 70 (shows bullish momentum). 

If price can hold above 1.1070, EUR/USD should continue to move higher, with at least the 1.1213 August-high in play. Now, there is a falling trendline seen in the 1H chart. A break above 1.1150 would clear this line, and would be the next bullish signal for the short to medium-term. 

The longer medium-term outlook is still neutral, while the long-term more, from at least March 2014 is still bearish.