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I Guess Nobody Sees A Banking Crisis Coming Besides Me?

Last week I opined upon the inevitability of JP Morgan's disappointing earnings and explained why there should be plenty more to come... 

Very soon after Morgan Stanley and Goldman reported.  As one could have guessed,  a "told a so"  was appropriate... 

 Now that everyone is all abuzz with blockchain tech for banks (which is a wild goose chase in my opinion),  the fact that the industry is entering a cyclical downturn makes this a very bad time to base a business model on selling FinTech to banks... 

You know,  with this macro environment and all.  There's no evidence that I'm right,  is there? Of course not,  as long as you ignore the following"

  1. Banks are shedding risk for Basel 3
  2. Banks are reporting horrible revenue numbers
  3. Banks are cutting fat to make earnings,  including game playing
  4. Despite the fact that ZIRP kills NIM (basically,  traditional bank margins),  every major central bank is cutting rates farther. You must ask yourself...  "Why?" 
  5. China has cut for the 6th time,  the most aggressive campaign since 2008 (a crash which they have yet to pay for since QEish stuff boosted bad lending,  hid NPAs and created a capacity glut). 
  6. ECB went full throttle QE and promised to do more. 
  7. Japan...  Well,  after 33 years of failure repeating the exact same actions...  Einstein said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. 
  8. The US Fed academic school (San Diego Fed,  where Chairperson Yelle hails from) has all but promised more NIRP and QE with the proclamation that the natural interest rate should be negative (what??!!!)