Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

NZD/USD Breaking 2014's Rising Trendline

The NZD/USD has been sliding sharply since hitting a high on the year at 0.8835. As price falls below 0.8550, it is also cracking 2014's rising trendline. The RSI has tagged 30, which reflects not only loss of bullish momentum, but possible initiation of bearish momentum. The moving averages are still in bullish alignment, but price has fallen below the 100-, and 50-day SMAs. Also, note that price has retraced 38.2% of the 2014-rally. 

As price cracks the 2014-trendline and signals a bearish outlook, we should first expect some pullback. First of all, the prevailing 2014-uptrend still looks like the primary mode. The RSI, while indicating some medium term bearish outlook, does suggest the market is oversold in the short-term and may be due for a pullback. Lastly, note that the area just above 0.85 was support for the consolidation gin March through May. 

If there is a pullback, we should expect sellers around 0.87. Also we should expect the daily RSI to start holding below 60 if the market has indeed shifted to a bearish mode in the medium term. Even if the market is only turning sideways in the medium term, we should anticipate some near-term bearish attempt when price is near 0.87, and the RSI near 60. 

To the downside, the next key support will be around 0.8415-0.8450. Here we have a previous support pivot in June. The 50% retracement is at 0.8443. The 200-day SMA resides around 0.8450 at the moment. Also, if price does come down to this area, a rising trendline from 2013 will likely be the last line of defense for the medium-long-term bullish mode.