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Upside Surprises More Likely Than Downside for Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Says Credit Suisse

Upside Surprises More Likely Than Downside for Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Says Credit Suisse - Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. NASDAQ:ALXN

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXN 0.71% shares have plummeted 35 percent year-to-date. Credit Suisse’s Alethia Young upgraded the rating on the company from Neutral to Outperform, while reducing the price target from $186 to $165.

Following the pullback, Alexion Pharma’s shares now reflect biosimilar and competition risk, while the company has various pipeline products that could lend upside, analyst Alethia Young commented. She added that the stock appeared to have “more potential for upside surprises than downside surprise” at the current level, with ~60 percent upside versus ~20 percent downside.

Soliris Estimates

“Expectations around Soliris growth long-term growth have pulled back significantly over 1H16. With a potential 1210 (next-gen Soliris) approval in 2018, we thought that it was reasonable to separate our Soliris estimates from our 1210 estimate,” Young wrote.

The new Soliris+1210 estimate for 2020 is at $3.9B, below consensus expectation of $4.3B, with the gap possibly arising from “our probability adjustment of 1210,” the analyst noted.

Kanuma Estimates

The 2020 estimate for Kanuma has been reduced from $581M to $249M, versus the consensus expectation of $490M, which has resulted in the downward revision of the price target.

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DateFirmActionFromTo
Jul 2016Credit SuisseUpgradesNeutralOutperform
Jun 2016CitigroupUpgradesNeutralBuy
Jun 2016Morgan StanleyMaintainsOverweight

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