Alex Pitti
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I Still Think 2016 Will Be A Recession

I have a YouTube video coming out at 6pm today which details why I think 2016 will be a recessionary year for the U.S. economy. Citi puts the risk of a recession at 65%. Personally, I can't come up with a percentage chance of it occurring; I just think it will happen. 

Almost all of the jobs created in the recovery have come from the oil and gas sector. With oil companies firing people as the price per barrel is in the mid-$30s, the biggest strength of the U.S. economy is now the biggest weakness. Even with low oil prices, the retail sales number has been tepid showing 1.4% growth this quarter. If oil was still in the $100s, it is likely the retail sales number would be negative.

The economies which profit off of commodity prices are getting hit. The countries are Canada, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, and the Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia. This decline is coming because of the slowdown in China. Chinese GDP growth of 6% in 2016 is meaningless. It's the equivalent of saying I will grow 6 inches next year, even though I am 22. It's not happening! The Chinese government lies about the stats. The real stats are in demand for coal, oil, and other commodities. Those commodities are in free-fall as the Chinese economy weakens. 

The two stocks I looked at in the YouTube video are Cummins and Macy's. Both stocks are bell-whether stocks. Both stocks are down about 50% since July. They signify a weakening in manufacturing and retail. So if retail is weak, Brazil is in recession, and China is weak where will the growth come from? It won't come from Europe as the continent is saddled with debt. It barely grew during the recovery!