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USD/CHF - Triangle Broken; Downtrend Intact

The USD/CHF has been forming a triangle since March when it made a 2014-low near 0.87. You can also assess it in a more general consolidation, ranging roughly from 0.87 to 0.8950.


(usdchf daily chart, 5/6)

Either way, with a bearish swing today, the daily USD/CHF chart shows a bearish trend intact since 2013.

Bullish scenario:
Now as the daily stochastic reading is oversold, we might see traders support USD/CHF around 0.87. The market is also anticipating Thursday's (5/8) ECB meeting. The CHF is correlated to the EUR, so USD/CHF might become tentative ahead of the policy statement.

Ahead of the ECB meeting, the bullish outlook from 0.87 should be near-term. Even, if USD/CHF finds a base and rallies after Thursday, the bullish outlook still remains in in the short-term the context of a larger bearish trend.

A break above 0.8950 will be needed to establish a meaningful base in the daily chart. 

Bearish scenario:
Below 0.87, there is a key support/resistance pivot from 2011, around 0.8570. The bearish scenario is the preferred one at the moment, because like I noted before, the downtrend since 2013 is still intact.