Chris Lau
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Chris Lau in Value Stocks,

​Nintendo’s Pokemon Go Makes Fitbit worth $44

Good News for Fitbit, Garmin and Others

It took only one week.

Pokemon Go’s worldwide buzz and craze fundamentally changed what people do in their spare time. After years of sedentary rest, people have woken up.

They are getting off their couch. They are walking their dogs. They are going to the parks and public stadiums. All of this is happening because of Nintendo.

This change will benefit wearable devices, notably those targeting active people Fitbit (FIT), and the counting of steps, will re-gain popularity. Garmin’s (GRMN) more accurate, advanced GPS-based exercise device will do well too. Garmin has an edge for investors because it pays a dividend. Fitbit has growth.

A re-forecast in Fitbit’s revenue growth over the next 10 years implies a PT (price target) of $44 for the stock:

Fiscal Years Ending Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Revenue 1,858 3,159 4,738 6,870 10,305 14,942 19,425 22,338 26,806 28,951 30,398
% Growth 149.3% 70.0% 50.0% 45.0% 50.0% 45.0% 30.0% 15.0% 20.0% 8.0% 5.0%
EBITDA 370 347 616 1,030 1,546 2,241 2,914 3,351 2,681 3,185 3,344
% of Revenue 19.9% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0%

Source: finbox.IO. Click HERE to access the financial model.

Expenditure forecast

Select Capital Expenditures Forecast
Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Terminal
Capital Expenditures 31 70 110 150 383 550 715 822 986 1,065 1,118 1,118
% of Revenue 1.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Fiscal Years Ending YTD
Historical Spending Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Mar-16
Capital Expenditures 0 3 8 26 31 17
% of Revenue NA 3.3% 2.8% 3.6% 1.6%
5-Year Average 2.8%

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