With the market moving higher by an extraordinary 17 points over the entire week, it ended where it basically began. Ultimately, that means our analysis is much as it was before, as the market has yet to make its decision regarding a path to 2328, our next bull market target. The question the S&P 500 will likely answer early in the upcoming week is whether it wants to head to the 2300 region directly, or if it is going to take the scenic route. (Remember, the direct route probably provides with a maximum target of 2328, whereas the scenic route should take us over 2400.) As it stands now, we have the potential for the S&P to accelerate to new all-time highs in the upcoming week, or, drop lower first before it begins its run to 2300SPX. Much depends upon the early week actions. Let's review what we know since the start of October. We expected the market to rally from just below the 1900 region to the 2000-2040SPX region. While we also expected the market to decline from that point, we were clearly wrong in the expectation, as the market broke through the 2047SPX level of resistance we continually cited, which catapulted us to our next higher target at 2077SPX. Last week, we noted that the market was still set up to move higher before any type of top may be expected. Furthermore, we expected that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, -0.05% could rally up toward the 117.50 region to catch up in its pattern to the S&P 500, and it topped this past week at 117.14. My analysis from last week is relatively unchanged, since the S&P 500 really did not advance significantly or break any support yet. The 2065SPX level is still the main bullish support. As long as we hold over that level, the market still has a very bullish immediate pattern on the chart, which can see it accelerate into the upper channel on the 60-minute chart, and target the green wave iii in the 2140 region next week. While the technical picture does not wholly support this proposition, price is what matters most, and if we see a strong break out over 2117 early this week, this is the count I will adopt to take us 200 points higher to the 2328 target within the next few months. But with the technicals weakening as we have moved higher, and with the IWM moving up toward the bottom of its ideal target resistance region, it is quite possible that we have moved as high as we are going to see in the current move off the 1895 support at which we began looking higher. A break of 2065SPX, with follow through below 2058SPX should put us in full pullback mode to the 2000-2020SPX region, at which time the market will have another decision to make. What also supports the further drop is that both the SPX and the IWM now have 5 wave structures completed from their respective highs made this past week. A corrective rally seen early in the coming week, which then breaks below the bottom of the initial 5 wave decline (as seen in the IWM chart linked below) makes it highly likely we are well on our way to the 2000-2020 lower support region. I have also noted that as long as that 2000 region is held as support, the bulls will remain in control. If the drop down toward the 2000-2020SPX region is corrective in nature, then one should be looking to the long side for the run to the 2328-2459SPX target zone. However, if the bears are able to break the 1990/2000 support region in impulsive fashion (Elliott Wave term of art meaning in a 5 wave structure), then it opens the door to the red b-wave top being in place, with the market still heading down to lower lows into November. Ultimately, please recognize that the b-wave is not yet dead, and November can still surprise many with a decline to a lower low. For this reason, I intend to wait a few weeks for the yellow or red count to make itself known as the higher-probability perspective (or for a sustained break out over 2117SPX in the green count) before I go back in on the long side in an index in a big way (since I still maintain my long term individual stock positions). As I have been saying for the past month, I will likely be looking for that long position in a major equity index within November (either the SPY or IWM), for our next major rally to the 2300-plus region in the SPX. More from MarketWatch