The U.K.'s June 23 referendum on whether to remain in the European Union is going to be a close race, but let's fast-forward to Friday, when all the ballots have been counted, and assume the U.K. voters have opted out of the EU. Market chaos will undoubtedly ensue, but where are some research houses placing their bets in the event of a "leave" outcome?
A Financial Times poll-of-polls put both sides neck-and-neck, with 44% of the vote. The "leave" side lost its lead over "remain" last week after the murder of Jo Cox, a pro-EU Member of Parliament. Today, Nigel Farage, chief proponents of the "leave" campaign, accused Prime Minister David Cameron of exploiting Cox's death to help the 'remain' campaign.
Banks and real estate, above all, seem to come out as the biggest losers from a "Brexit" result. Jefferies analysts expect a 5%-10% decline in London-listed banks, as London's status as a leading financial center comes into question and financial services consider relocating head offices to the continent.
Moreover, a U.K. exit would mean it takes on "third-party" status, forcing U.K. banks such as Barclays (
Jefferies and Liberum analysts...