Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

EUR/JPY - Fade the Rally Trade Idea

The EUR/JPY has been bearish since in July, after finding resistance at 139.28. The 4H chart shows a lower highs and lower lows. The RSI has also tagged 30, but held below 60, which reflects maintenance of bearish momentum. Price is trading below the moving averages which appear to be spreading after converging. This can reflect bearish continuation after consolidation. In fact, when price broke below the rising trendline from June, we had a bearish continuation signal. Price even broke below June's 137.72 low. 

(eurjpy 4h chart, 7/14)

The rally this week from 137.50 to 138.45 is a pullback that we should consider fading. 

1) Look at the resistance factors - a falling trendline and the moving averages. 
2) The trendline that was support did not act as resistance, but if price falls back below 138.20, the bearish breakout is still in play. 
3) The prevailing trend is bearish in the 4H chart.

Reward to Risk:
If you consider putting a stop above the 138.76 pivot ie, .138.85, and your short-entry is at say 138.30, there is a 55-pip risk. A conservative target would be the 134.50 low on the month, which gives us 80-pip reward. This is less than a 2:1 reward to risk ration, so it is not so attractive. However, we know that the prevailing trend adds to the potential reward, so whether you take this trade will depend on whether you feel the prevailing trend has more potential to extend or reverse here above 137.50. I don't see significant reason to believe the trend should end, so my bias is that there is at least more than 50% chance of a bearish continuation. If you don't agree, don't take this trade.

Target; Scale-out Idea:
If the bearish trade works out and price does approach 137.50, a trader could try to scale out and leave a smaller position in case the prevailing trend DOES indeed continue.