Nick Nasad
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EUR/USD - Do Lower Highs Suggest USD Strength?

The EUR/USD has been rather boring over the last few weeks, ever since the FOMC announcement to not taper as was expected by market participants. With the troubles affecting the US - gov't shutdown and debt ceiling - we would think that the USD may suffer as a result, considering the shutdown shaves off about 0.1% of GDP for every week it lasts, and it shows that the dysfunction in Washington undermines the credibility of fiscal policy.

However, the USD has weathered the storm. If we go back to the start of September then, its worth asking if we may have a period of USD strength upon us? It's a bit early to say, but I did make the case using the USD Index earlier this week.
  • Therefore, its important to note the short-term resistance trendline that was respected in today's session.
  • We should also be cognizant of the fact that the 21 and 55-EMA's are now scrunched together, and if price heads south would mean a bearish crossover - the first one since August 28th.
  • The key remains what happens at the recent support levels at 1.3485/60.
  • A break there and we are likely heading further south (horizontal pivots at 1.3385 and 1.3325).
  • For those that are EUR bulls, the hold of the support levels mentioned above would be a positive sign for the pair and we'd consider the last 3-weeks a flag type continuation pattern. 

- Nick