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S&P500 Bulls Back in Control? Not so Fast

The S&P500 rallied again today, inching back towards the psychological 2000 mark. It has been rallying since the end of September now, and to some this indicates the start of a bull run again. I am more conservative on that. I believe that the correction started in August is still the dominant mode.

S&P500 4H Chart 10/6
(click to enlarge)

Now, if the market is indeed still in consolidation, the S&P500 should see resistance once it reaches 2000, especially if the daily RSI shows a bearish divergence with price (RSI makes a lower high while price makes a higher high). The 4H chart shows a resistance area between 1995 and 2021. 

Now, juggling between the possibility between a bullish continuation and the extension of consolidation mode, we should limit a bearish outlook from this 1995-2020 area. I would watch out for support in the 1930-1950 area, which represents the middle of the consolidation range, and is the site of many support/resistance pivots during the consolidation. If the market indeed pivots from here and rallies, we might actually be in a bullish continuation. So if you are into shorting, there is a technical opportunity around 2000 with target of 1950 or a little lower. 

If you are a bull, it might be prudent to exercise patience and wait to see if the market will slide back to the 1850-1870 zone again. There we can expect some support and a buy from there should provide decent reward to risk. Now, if price breaks above 2021, and our bullish continuation scenario comes into play, we still might want to wait for a pullback and buy on the dip, let's say around 1950.