Nick Nasad
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NZD/JPY - Kiwi Ready to Go on the Warpath?

Yesterday night, I wrote about the chance that the NZD would use the strong NZ retail sales data as a catalyst to push the AUD/NZD pair lower. So far that has come to fruition, but I should have been thinking bigger. Looking at the charts this morning, the Kiwi has gone on a general rampage against all the majors.

The NZD pair I will focus on here will be the NZD/JPY becuase I have been wondering when the next leg in JPY weakness may come, and I like the signals I'm seeing in this pair.

Looking at the daily, I notice that:
  1. The pair was unable to push down towards its previous low at the 75 handle, instead finding support at the 200-daily MA's (the EMA is in gray and the SMA is in black - I use both in my charts for reference).
  2. That support (which started at the beginning of last week) was put in place as the daily RSI bounced up off the 40 level - that is a sign of bullish continuation.
  3. What we look for now is if we are able to push through the downward sloping trendline seen in the chart, as well as the horizontal resistance pivots at 79.65 and 80.35.

Zooming into the 4-hour:
  1. We have managed to push above 78.65, our local pivot high, and have pushed through all our important moving averages.
  2. We are a bit overbought in this timeframe, so it may be prudent to wait for a pullback.

Bottom Line: If in fact we have the start of a more pronounced upmove in this pair we should monitor any pullbacks/retraces and consider opportunities to buy the dips.

- Nick