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Dow To Rise Above 22,000 On Apple Earnings; Europe Pressured By Surging Euro

Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.8% after Apple surged to record highs following a strong beat and optimistic projections ahead of the launch of the company's new batch of iPhones. Eminis are little changed, up 0.1% to 2,475, trailing Asian markets, while European stocks and crude oil fall.

Apple surged 6% after-hours to a new record highm taking its market capitalization above $830 billion. That should help carry the Dow through the 22,000 mark when the market opens. Among Asia's Apple suppliers, LG Innnotek jumped 10 percent and SK Hynix, the world's second-biggest memory chip maker, rose 3.8 percent. Murata Manufacturing firmed 4.9 percent and Taiyo Yuden 4.4 percent, helping the Nikkei up 0.47 percent.

"It is all about Apple," said Naeem Aslam chief market analyst at Think Markets. "The firm comfortably topped its forecast and produced stellar numbers for its revenue and profit."

Oil came under pressure again as higher than expected US inventories and reports of rising OPEC output helped drive prices below back below $48/bbl (WTI  crude). In FX markets, the USD dollar gave up some gains late in the session with DXY edging down by 0.1% and the euro rising to $1.1827. Treasury yields are 0.5-2bps higher across the curve with the 10y at 2.273%.

The MSCI tech index for Asia climbed 0.9 percent to ground not trod since early 2000, bringing its gains for the year to a heady 40 percent. Asian markets rose, supported by tech shares after Apple's surprising beat guidance boost as well as stronger Chinese manufacturing PMIs (the Caixin/Markit survey of private Chinese manufacturing rose to 51.1 in July, its highest level in four months). Japan's Nikkei gained after the strong Apple sales outlook helped boost tech shares; Korea's Kospi and the Hang Seng were also firmer while the ASX 200 slipped on commodities pullback. The NZ kiwi dropped sharply after New Zealand’s employment unexpectedly fell. Australian government bonds trimmed early gains after monthly building approvals surged; WTI crude futures drift lower toward $48.50; Dalian iron ore January futures 1.6% weaker

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index decreased 0.3 % while Germany’s DAX Index dropped 0.1%. Mining and oil shares weighed on Europe’s benchmark equity index as crude fell for a second day and most industrial metals traded lower. Meanwhile, following its best month since March 2016 the Euro's gains continued, reached a new two-and-a-half-year high against the ailing dollar, and leading to a stop-loss triggered spike around 4:30am ET, which sent the EURUSD as high as 1.1870, pressuring the Eurostoxx 600 lower, as traders ktrimmed long-dollar positions ahead of U.S. payrolls data on Friday. Rio Tinto Plc led the decline among basic resources shares after first-half profit missed estimates. Banks dropped after Standard Chartered Plc said it can’t resume dividends amid an uncertain recovery, while Societe Generale SA slumped as litigation costs increased. Oil extended a retreat from its brief rise above $50 a barrel as U.S. crude stockpiles expanded, while copper dropped a second day.

"The ECB is going to be the central bank to watch for the rest of the year," said JP Morgan Asset Management global market strategist Alex Dryden. "We think they are going to take 9-12 months to get out of the market but that is a big question ... it could even be six months," he added.

With the dollar index near a two-year low, the options market shows that traders are gearing up for more euro strength with demand growing for calls, according to Bloomberg. The currency’s strength has pushed European earnings revisions into negative territory, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.

The pound retains bullish trading ahead of the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday, rising as high as 1.3240. European government bonds slipped before Germany’s sale of 10-year bunds, which priced at an average yield of 0.49%, down from 0.59% previously (Bid to cover 1.52, retention of 19.5%).

The key overnight FX move included a tumble in the New Zealand dollar, which fell more than half a percent after second-quarter employment unexpectedly declined. Most emerging Asian currencies fell initially as the dollar recovered after capping a fifth straight month of declines in July. The MSCI EM Asia Index of shares is up for a third day, with bonds in the region mostly higher. However, as the night progressed, dollar gains fizzled and the Bloomberg Dollar Index was down less than 0.1% after bing up 0.1% earlier, following Tuesday’s 0.2% advance, which came after a sharp 2.6% slide in July.

China’s money-market squeeze returned, with sovereign bonds beginning to feel the heat as the central bank keeps liquidity on a tight leash, without adding any net new reverse repo liquidity for another day, and concerns grow about a wall of fund maturities this month. 10-year bond yield little changed at 3.64%, hovering near the highest level in 8 weeks as PBOC refrains from boosting liquidity for third day. Onshore, offshore yuan both drop; Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2%. In a statement on its microblog, SAFE said it didn’t target specific companies as in a media report that it checked their collaterals for loans overseas.

Expect data on MBA mortgage applications later, along with earnings reports from Tesla, MetLife and Time Warner among others.

Market Snapshot

  • Dow futures +53
  • Dow cash closed +72.80 to 21,963.92
  • S&P 500 futures +3.5, up 0.1% to 2,474.75
  • S&P 500 cash closed +0.24% to 2,476.35
  • 10Y UST yield +2bps to 2.273%
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 379.33
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.02% to 161.30
  • MSAPJ up 0.05% to 531.62
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,080.04
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,634.38
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 27,607.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,285.06
  • Sensex down 0.08% to 32,549.91
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,744.20
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,427.63
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.495%
  • Euro up 0.5% to 1.1866 per US$
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.4 bps to 1.727%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.9 bps to 1.477%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $51.53/bbl
  • old spot down 0.1% to $1,267.36
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 92.80

Top Overnight News from BBG

  • Apple Results Push Global Tech Higher; White House Considers China Trade Action; Oil Slips on Surprise Jump in Stockpiles
  • Apple Inc. gave a revenue forecast that highlighted resilient demand for the iPhone ahead of the launch of its new models and the growing significance of the company’s supporting businesses
  • Deutsche Bank AG envisions shifting almost half its U.K. positions to the European continent over coming years as the lender’s Brexit plans take shape
  • Auto sales fell the most since August 2010, a year after the federal government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program to stimulate demand came to an end
  • Central banks around the globe are stocking up on Treasuries again, giving bond traders one more reason to wager on a steeper U.S. yield curve in the months ahead
  • Clients said to have pulled 15% of their assets from Paul Tudor Jones main fund in 2Q
  • Trump’s Russia Ties Get No Scrutiny as House Panel Eyes Clinton
  • Trump’s CEO Brain Trust Comes Up Short on Big Ideas for Policies
  • Democrats Say They Had ‘Bizarre’ Meeting With Trump’s Ex-Im Pick
  • Wal-Mart Puts New Scrutiny on Suppliers With Chemicals Project
  • Apple FY4Q Rev. View Midpoint Tops Est; Gross Margin View Trails
  • Fleetcor Raised $3.975b of Pro-Rata Loans Alongside $350m TLB
  • Global Smartphone Sales Rise 5.5% as Xiaomi Re-Joins Top Five
  • Teck Says BC Hydro Exercised Right on Interest in Waneta Dam
  • Methode to Buy All Pacific Insight Shares for About C$144m Cash 
  • CVS Sees Removing 17 Products From Standard Control Formulary
  • Match Group Names Mandy Ginsberg to Succeed Greg Blatt as CEO
  • Amazon Cloud Users Told Not to Bypass China Internet Rules: WSJ

Asian stocks traded mostly higher taking the impetus from Wall Street's gains where the DJIA homed in on the 22,000 level and NASDAQ futures surged after-market following Apple's (+5% after-market) strong Q3 earnings. This supported the Apple supply chain and resulted to outperformance of the TAIEX (+0.7%), while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was underpinned by a weaker currency. Conversely, losses in the commodities complex and financials weighed on ASX200 (-0.4%), while Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) was indecisive and traded choppy due to a lack of drivers and a reduced liquidity operation by the PBoC. Finally, 10Y JGBs were relatively flat amid the positive risk tone in Japan with only mild gains seen following a respectable Rinban announcement in which the BoJ are in the market for over JPY ltln JGBs ranging from ly to 10Y maturities.

The Kiwi tumbled after ugly jobs data:

  • New Zealand Employment Change (Q2) Q/Q -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prey. 1.2%)
  • New Zealand Employment Change (Q2) Y/Y 3.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prey. 5.7%)
  • New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q2) 4.8% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prey. 4.9%)

Top Asian News

  • GIC Is Said to Invest $100 Million in Japan Activist Fund Misaki
  • China Billionaire Triples Wealth and Shorts See a Fat Target
  • Hongqiao to Shut and Replace More Than 2 Mln Tons Alu Capacity
  • Sleepy Japan Stocks Set for Rude Awakening, Strategists Say
  • Noble Group May Challenge Yancoal Equity Raising for Rio Deal
  • BNP Paribas Is Said to Expand Japan Operations With 30 Hires

European bourses traded with modest losses with energy and material names underperforming, the latter weighed by Rio Tinto post their soft earnings report. Apple suppliers performing well this morning with the likes of Dialog Semiconductors trading with modest gains after Apple profits rose ahead of analyst estimates. Standard Chartered and SocGen lower this morning following soft financial results. EGB yields ticking higher this morning, while firmer Eurozone PPI figures have also led to the upside. Notable outperformance observed in the German 5Y with the yield falling 0.2bps.

Top European News

  • Deutsche Bank Brexit Base Case Said to See 4,000 Jobs Move
  • Standard Chartered First Half Adjusted Operating Income $7.2 Bln
  • U.K. July Construction PMI 51.9 vs 54.8 in June; Est. 54
  • Glencore Asks Australia to Focus on Economy Before Climate Deal
  • Brexit Angst Is So 2016 as These Indicators Show: Markets Live
  • UniCredit, Mediobanca, Generali to Cut Crossholdings: Repubblica
  • Thyssenkrupp Said to Consider Break-Up as Plan B to Tata

In currencies, NZD underperformed last night post the release of soft jobs figures which took NZD back towards 0.74. Consequently, the jobs data alongside the relatively tepid Fonterra GDT auction reinforces the RBNZ's current neutral stance on interest rates, in the wake of the data, AUD/NZD broke back above 1.07. CAD noticeably weaker this morning, largely on the back of softer crude prices following last night's surprise API build. The recent bearish trend looks to have broken down with USDCAD now hovering around last week's high of 1.2577 and looking to make a move above 1.26. JPY weaker across the board, USD/JPY eying 111.00 to the upside after offers just above 110.50 failed to cap strength. EURJPY holding 131.00 for now as gains have been led by rise in EUR/USD which tripped through 118.00. GBP relatively choppy this morning following a sizeable miss on the Construction PMI reading (51.9 vs. Exp. 54.5), GBPUSD ticking off some 20 pips before trading back to pre-announced levels

In commodities, WTI crude futures were drilled below USD 49/bbl following a surprise build in API inventories and a survey which suggested OPEC supply rose in July. Elsewhere, gold (-0.3%) retreated from near 8-week highs amid profit taking and with the safe-haven also dampened by the increased risk appetite, while copper prices were also lower alongside the broad-based weakness across the commodities complex. WTI and Brent crude futures tracking lower following last night's API report. Iron ore futures also saw a slight pullback from its recent advances, declining over 1% in Asian trade.

Taking a look now at the day ahead, we will get the ADP employment number for July due (190k expected; 158k previous). At present the three month trailing average of ADP private employment gains (179k) is tracking close to that of BLS private payrolls (180k). So our US economist believes it would take a material miss relative to expectations for us to change our payroll forecast. Major US companies due to report earnings include: American International Group (AIG), Metlife, Mondelez International and Time Warner.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.4%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 190,000, prior 158,000
  • 11am: Fed’s Mester Speaks to Community Banking Conference
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Las Vegas on Monetary Policy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Many in the market continue to talk about it being a carry trade until at least Jackson Hole in 3 and a half weeks’ time. The chatter on the US debt ceiling that we've discussed before also continues in the background with some saying the Trump administration will struggle to build a consensus around the smooth raising of it as we approach it around October time. The thing that worries investors most from an immediate event risk point of view is an escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea. Could we wake up one morning to find the US has used force in some way in the peninsula? Clearly its impossible to predict but that doesn't prevent some from using it to handicap their view. We also have the Fed and the ECB likely to stop reinvestment and announce a fresh taper in September and October respectively. So plenty to think about after the holidays are over but for now most investors are riding carry trades. In the days leading up Jackson Hole it'll be interesting to see if that changes but markets probably have two weeks before it comes into view enough to focus on.

Ahead of the likely August lull, government bond yields fell across all regions and maturities yesterday, with the German Bunds down to the lowest level since early July (2Y: -2bp; 10Y: -5bps). For other sovereigns, the Italian BTPs (2Y: -3bps; 10Y: -8bps) fell the most, followed by the OATs (2Y: -6bps; 10Y: -6bps) and Gilts (2Y: -1bps; 10Y: -2bps). The bund yield started higher in the morning, but fell ~5bp in the afternoon to 0.49%. The change was similar to intraday falls in the UST 10Y, partly driven by the mixed US macro data and lower auto sales by US car markers (sales at GM -15% yoy). To be fair, as we type, UST 10Y yields have bounced back from the lows and is now ~1.5bp higher this morning.

In commodities, WTI oil fell 2 %, marking the first decline after 6 consecutive days of gain. The softness was partly associated with an industry report (American Petroleum Institute) showing rising US inventories and a Reuters survey indicating higher OPEC production in July, led by a further recovery in supply from Libya. Iron ore softened 0.2%, after a 7% rise the day before on positive Chinese steel PMI data. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly lower (Gold -0.1%; Silver -0.2%) and industrial metals also softened (Copper -0.4%; Aluminium -0.1%).

Onto equities, US bourses continue to edge ahead, following supportive results. The S&P and the Nasdaq were both up 0.2%. The Dow was up 0.3% to another record close – the fifth record high and closer to the 22,000 mark. Within the S&P, modest gains in the financials (+0.8%) and IT sector (+0.5%) were partly offset by losses in health care and industrials. After the bell, Apple was up ~4% on a solid quarterly result and upgraded revenue forecast.

European markets also strengthened, aided by the lower Euro and sound results from BP and Rolls-Royce. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.6%, with most sectors increasing on the day. Utilities and the energy sector was up 1%, while health care was the only sector down (-0.2%). The DAX was up 1.1%, with similar increases across the region: FTSE 100 (+0.7%), CAC (+0.7%) and Italian FTSE MIB (+0.6%). Turning to currency, the US dollar index gained 0.2% on the back of mixed but slightly supportive data. The Euro/USD and Sterling/USD both softened marginally, falling 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

Turning to Tuesday's data, the key focus was on the Markit PMI and ISM data out of Europe and the US respectively. Before we take a detailed look at these numbers, we quickly recap some of the other economic data releases out yesterday. Away from the PMIs in Europe we saw the advance Q2 GDP estimate for the Eurozone that came in line with expectations at +2.1% YoY (+0.6% mom), up from +1.9% YoY in Q1. After factoring this in and the clear lift in momentum seen in other indicators, our European team now expects full year growth in 2017 to be 2.2% up (vs. 1.9% previous) and 2018 growth to be 2.0% (vs. 1.6% previous). Meanwhile over in the US personal income growth was flat in June (vs. +0.4% expected) while personal spending also slowed in line with expectations at +0.1% mom (+0.2% previous). Real personal spending was however flat on the month against expectations of an increase of +0.1%.

Turning to the manufacturing PMI data now. In Europe we saw manufacturing PMIs for Germany (58.1 vs. 58.3 flash), France (54.9 vs. 55.4 flash) and the Eurozone (56.6 vs. 56.8 flash) all revised slightly lower. Elsewhere we also got the first look at the Spanish PMI (54.0 vs. 54.5 expected) that disappointed while Italy (55.1 vs. 55.0 expected) and the UK (55.1 vs. 54.5 expected) beat expectations. The UK number had fallen for the last three months and the rise was on the back of the strongest rise in export orders since April 2010. Has the devaluation finally had an impact?

Across the pond the ISM reading dipped to 56.3 (vs. 56.4 expected; 57.8 previous), but was largely in line with expectations. The production index fell to 60.6 (vs. 62.4 previous) while new orders slipped to 60.4 (vs. 63.5 previous). New export orders also fell to 57.5 (vs. 59.5 expected). One interesting dynamic to take note of is the prices paid index that climbed significantly more than expected to 62.0 (vs. 55.8 expected; 55.0 previous). Of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed, 14 reported an increase in the prices paid for raw materials in July. While part of the climb could be attributed to the fact that the index was quite low in June (lowest level since November 2016), the US dollar weakness in July likely played an important role in driving up raw material costs for US manufacturers.

Away from the markets, the WSJ reported that US senate democratic leader Schumer wrote to President Trump and urged him to put all Chinese M&A activity in the US on hold until China takes more aggressive actions to address the evolving North Korean situation.

This morning, Asian markets have followed the lead from US, with the Nikkei (+0.4%), the Kospi (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) all higher but with Chinese bourses broadly flat.

Taking a look now at the day ahead, today’s calendar appears to be fairly quiet. In Europe the Eurozone PPI for June (-0.1% mom expected; -0.4% previous) is the only data of note, while the US has the ADP employment number for July due (190k expected; 158k previous). At present the three month trailing average of ADP private employment gains (179k) is tracking close to that of BLS private payrolls (180k). So our US economist believes it would take a material miss relative to expectations for us to change our payroll forecast. Major US companies due to report earnings include: American International Group (AIG), Metlife, Mondelez International and Time Warner.