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Aussie Strength Squashed after Inflation Data

Today's big mover in the currency market has been the decline in the Australian Dollar (AUD) after disappointing CPI data. 

(source: forexfactory.com)

According to bloomberg.com, the RBA "could resume cutting interest rates following a one-year hiatus as the threat of persistent weak inflation that's engulfed developed-world counterparts show signs of emerging Down Under". (Bloomberg) This can indeed be a game changer for the RBA, and therefore for the AUD. Let's take a look at a couple of Aussie-pairs.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 4/27

(click to enlarge)

As we can see, AUD/USD has been bullish for most of 2016, rallying from a low on the year around 0.6830 to a high of about 0.7830. Price was already retreating from the high above 0.78 but was held above 0.77 ahead of the inflation data. After the data release, AUD/USD plunged below 0.77 and is now breaking 0.76 as we enter the 4/27 US session.

Now, I think there is downside in the short-term towards the 0.7470-0.75 area, which involves common support area as well as a rising channel. 

If price comes up to the 0.77 area, we should anticipate resistance. Resistance around 0.77 would further confirm a bearish correction scenario, in which the next short-term targets below 0.7470 would be 0.7380 and then 0.7240.

The Aussie has also been gaining on the Euro in 2016. The reaction to the inflation data seems to suggest a bullish reversal scenario. 

EUR/AUD 4H Chart 4/27

(click to enlarge)

Looking at the 4H chart, we can see price break above the cluster of moving averages and a falling trendline. It looks like the bullish break is opening up the 1.4935 pivot area as well as the 1.5160 pivot area. 

If price pulls back, we should anticipate support in the 1.4650-1.47 area, but only a break below 1.46 should create the suspicion of a return to the bearish trend.

Note that the target of 1.5160 does not constitute a bullish trend in EUR/AUD, but rather a bullish short-term swing within a medium-term sideways market. Only a break above 1.52 should indicate a bullish trend outside of the medium-term consolidation context.