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Industrial Production Plunges Most In 3 Years As Auto-Maker "Nightmare" Comes True

Industrial Production missed expectations notably, dropping 0.4% MoM (the 6th of the last 8 months) missing expectations of a 0.2% drop (and notably weaker than the +0.9% upward revised July print). Thjis is the biggest MoM drop since August 2012. The big driver of the decline - just as we warned of nightmares ahead - was auto assemblies which plunged to a 4-year low by the most since Jan 2009. The year-over-year rise in IP is just 0.9% - flashing yet another recession-looming indicator.

Worst MoM drop in 3 years...

 

It appears yet another US macro indicator is flashing a recessionary warning... as YoY IP flashes red!!!

 

Why? Simple - just as we have explained... Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in August primarily because of a large drop in motor vehicles and parts that reversed a substantial portion of its jump in July

 

This is the biggest MoM decline in Auto Assemblies SAAR since Jan 09 (and Mar 96)...

 

 

Manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in August, as the production of durable goods fell 0.9 percent and the production of nondurable goods was unchanged. The output of durables other than motor vehicles and parts rose 0.1 percent, with gains of more than 1 percent for nonmetallic mineral products, machinery, and miscellaneous manufacturing and with losses of more than 1 percent for fabricated metal products and for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. Among the nondurable goods industries, the indexes for petroleum and coal products and for chemicals each fell about 1/2 percent, while the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products and for plastics and rubber products each rose about 1/2 percent. The production of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) edged down 0.2 percent. 

Charts: Bloomberg