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AUD/USD Rebounding from Channel Support

AUD/USD has turned bearish after rallying to 0.79 in February. The 4H chart shows the market holding under the 200-period SMA and eventually falling back below the 100-, and 50-period SMAs was well. The RSI has tagged 30 last week, showing revival of the bearish momentum. (It lost the bearish momentum in February when the RSI pushed above 60).

AUD/USD 4H Chart 3/9
(click to enlarge)

Now, as we start the week, AUD/USD is holding above last week's low of 0.7684. This was where a projected channel support challenged the decline .Now, if this rally extends towards 0.78, get ready for sellers. 

The 0.78-0.7825 area involves the cluster of the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs as well as the falling channel resistance. We should at least expect a dip back towards the 0.7750 area if not further in continuation of the prevailing downtrend in 2014. 

A break above 0.7850 however, will suggest resumption of consolidation, and possible further bullish correction above 0.79, epsecially if the RSI also pushes above 70 in the 4H chart.