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CAD/JPY - Price Bottom vs. Head and Shoulders

CAD/JPY Daily Chart 10/15

(click to enlarge)

The daily CAD/JPY chart shows a bearish pair that has formed a price bottom in September. If the price bottom sticks, there is upside risk towards the 94 area and the 97 area. We should limit the bullish outlook to 97 for now because the prevailing trend has been bearish. A break above 97 and a falling trendline would open up a bullish outlook outside of the short/medium-term. 

Now, before we jump on the bullish outlook, consider some bearish signs as well. The fact that the RSI held mostly under 60 in the daily chart shows that the prevailing bearish momentum might still be at work. Secondly, let's examine the 4H chart.

CAD/JPY 4H Chart 10/15


(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows a possible head and shoulder pattern forming. I would not be convinced of this pattern until a break below 91.45. Even then, there might be support around 91.00. If there is a pullback from 91.00 we will have to see if price will respect the price top. If the H&S is completed and confirmed, the bearish outlook in the daily chart should come back to play and put the 89.00 low in sight with risk of further downside. Note that a break below 91.45 not only breaks a neckline, but would also bring price below the 50-day SMA, making the daily chart more convincingly bearish.

Now, if price pops up above 92.55 instead, then we don't have a price top, and the bullish outlook towards 94.00 is preferred with a more aggressive outlook towards 97.00.