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TSLA - Cautious Optimism on a Bullish Signal

Tesla Motors (TSLA) has been consolidating above 200, roughly between 204 and 216 for the past couple of weeks or so. Today, it broke above this consolidation range, making it a price bottom. The 4H chart shows the pair surge to 232 before stalling. It should be noted that this 230-232 area represents a key support/resistance pivot and is the first challenge against a bullish reversal outlook.

TSLA 4H Chart 11/4

(click to enlarge)

Let's say price retreats back towards 210. After closing the gap, if price rolls back up, we might have more bullish bias in the short-term. Even then, when price has confirmed the recent price bottom. we should limit our bullish outlook. The 230 area still might provide resistance, but if price pushes above that, the 250 level becomes critical. 

TSLA Daily Chart 11/4

(click to enlarge)

It is just an anticipation now, but if TSLA were to eventually swing up to 250, it would be challenged by a previous support that might turn into resistance. Around 250 will also be the 100-day simple moving average and possibly a falling speedline. 

So, I am suggesting some caution on the bullish outlook. But, I do have a bullish bias in the long-term, looking at the weekly chart. 

TSLA Weekly Chart 11/4
(click to enlarge)

As you can see in the weekly chart, the trend since 2013 has been bullish. This trend is for the most part still the dominant mode although we can say the market has flattened a bit. However, note that the RSI has held above 40, which suggests the market is at least neutral-bullish, if not outright bullish. 

With the technical conditions observed in the weekly chart, I would not mind betting that the current price bottom could be a pivot to a medium-term bullish run that has upside risk towards 280. But again, I would consider taking in some profit if price does reach 230 and 250. Essentially, 230, 250 and 280 area my targets, progressively more aggressive.