Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
2
All posts from Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Buy Medivation's Options Before Earnings

Medivation, Inc. (MDVN) is a biopharmaceutical company. The company is focused on the development and commercialization of therapies to treat serious diseases for which there are limited treatment options. It is reporting earnings on Tuesday, August 9, after market close:

As evident from the above, the company beat earnings estimates in 75% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming in the rest of time, and has seen modest volatility in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

Market data show that the August options are a bit undervalued:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The two-week straddles (options with a strike price of $63.00 and expiring on August 19, 2016) are worth around 5.7% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been more volatile than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 16.0% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit less than two weeks has an implied monthly volatility of around 10.5% (calculated based on 9 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event this week. I therefore see signs of undervaluation in these options. Hence, buying the straddles is a good idea from a theoretical standpoint.

Investors may also be interested in selling out-of-money options against the straddles to lower the cost basis of the initial trade:

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

On the one hand, this will limit expected returns. On the other hand, this action will minimize losses in the event the stock does not move swiftly over the next two weeks. The risk-return profile of this trade looks like this:

(Source: optionsprofitcalculator.com)

As you can see from the above illustration, the "window of safety" is around 7.8%. This means that the stock has to move roughly 4% in either direction from the current price by expiration in order for investors to break-even. The risk-reward ratio of around 1:0.58 is in line with this type of option strategies.