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Morning Call For Monday, Nov. 13

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 -0.24%) this morning are down -0.15% on long liquidation spurred on by market doubts over the trajectory of U.S. tax reform. European stocks are down -0.37% at a 2-week low after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded European equities to 'Underweight' from perspective of international allocation. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -1.32%, Hong Kong +0.21%, China +0.44%, Taiwan -0.45%, Australia -0.13%, Singapore -0.03%, South Korea -0.49%, India -0.84%. China's Shanghai Composite rose to a new 1-3/4 year high, led by a rally in bank stocks. China 10-year note yield jumped to a 3-year high of 3.98% on signs the government's attempt to reduce leverage is working after China Oct aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit growth, rose by a less-than-expected 1.04 trillion yuan, the smallest increase in a year.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) is up +0.16%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.16%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.13%) are up +5 ticks.

Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he's looking for another Fed rate hike this year and that the balance sheet unwind will be "boring." He added that he would be more confident with three rate hikes next year if underlying inflation picks up above 2%.

ECB Vice President Constancio said "the Eurozone economy is experiencing a broad-based, robust and resilient recovery, but we know that this process still relies significantly on our monetary policy support."

China Oct new yuan loans were +663.2 billion yuan, weaker than expectations of +783.0 billion yuan and the least amount of new loans in a year. Oct aggregate financing increase 1.04 trillion yuan, weaker than expectations of 1.10 trillion yuan and the smallest increase in a year.

Japan Oct PPI of +0.3% m/m and +3.4% y/y was stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +3.1% y/y with the +3.4% y/y gain the sharpest year-on-year increase in 3 years.


U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct monthly budget statement (expected -$58.0 billion, Sep +$8.0 billion), (2) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (3) USDA crop conditions and progress report.

Notable Russell 2000 earnings reports today include: Tyson Foods (1.36).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: UBS Global Technology Conference on Mon-Tue, J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference on Tue, NAREIT REITWorld Convention on Tue, Stifel Nicolaus Health Care Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Wed, MoffettNathanson Inaugural Software Forum on Wed, Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals and Agriculture Conference on Wed, UBS Industrial and Transportation Conference on Wed, Universal Companion Diagnostic Test Personalized Medicine Conference on Wed, Jefferies London Health Care Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Deutsche Bank Lithium Supply Chain and Energy Storage Conference on Thu, MKM Partners Entertainment, Travel & Technology Conference on Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Thu-Fri, Gabelli & Co Financial Services Conference on Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

General Electric (GE +2.50%) said it will cut its quarterly dividend by 50% to 12 cents a share from 24 cents a share.

Equifax (EFX -0.19%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Stifel.

Time Warner (TWX +4.08%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Rosenblatt Securities with a price target of $103.

MercadoLibre (MELI +1.67%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Fairly Valued' at Nau Securities with a price target of $240.

TD Ameritrade (AMTD +0.99%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.


Nvidia (NVDA +5.27%) was upgraded to 'Market Perform' from 'Underperform' at BMO Capital Markets.

Autodesk (ADSK +0.58%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Guggenheim Securities with a price target of $150.

Exact Sciences (EXAS +2.01%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with a price target of $56.

JM Smucker (SJM +1.48%) was upgraded to 'Positive' from 'Neutral' at Susquehanna Financial with a price target of $127.

Mattel (MAT +4.95%) surged over 20% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported Hasbro has discussed an acquisition of Mattel. Hasbro (HAS +3.11%) moved up nearly 3% on the news.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESZ17 -0.24%) this morning are down -3.75 points (-0.15%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.09%, Dow Jones -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.05%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on long liquidation in stocks fueled by pessimism U.S. legislators will be able to pass tax reform legislation after the Senate revealed Thursday that its tax plan would delay corporate tax cuts until 2019. Stocks were also undercut by the unexpected -2.9 point decline in the U.S. Nov University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 97.8 (weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 100.8) and by interest rate concerns as the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week high on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said he expects a Fed rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting and three more rate hikes next year.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 +0.13%) this morning are up +5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYZ7 -15.50, FVZ7 -6.75. Dec 10-year T-notes on Friday dropped to a 2-week low and closed lower on negative carry-over from a fall in 10-year German bunds to a 2-week low and on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said he expects a Fed rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting and three more next year. T-note prices were also undercut by increased inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate rose to a 6-month high.


The dollar index (DXY00 +0.13%) this morning is up +0.155 (+0.16%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0010 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18 (-0.16%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.053 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0023 (+0.20%), USD/JPY +0.06 (+0.05%). The dollar index on Friday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on the unexpected decline in the U.S. Nov University of Michigan consumer sentiment and on strength in GBP/USD which rose to a 1-week high after UK Sep industrial production and manufacturing production rose more than expected, which was hawkish for BOE monetary policy.

Dec crude oil (CLZ17 +0.14%) this morning is up +13 cents (+0.23%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ17 +0.58%) is up +0.0125 (+0.69%). Friday's closes: Dec WTI crude -0.43 (-0.75%), Dec gasoline -0.0073 (-0.40%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed lower on weakness in stocks, which undercuts optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand, and on the 9-rig increase in U.S. active oil rigs in the week ended Nov 10 to 738 rigs, which may lead to stronger future U.S. crude output.

Metals prices this morning are higher with Dec gold (GCZ17 +0.36%) +4.7 (+0.37%), Dec silver (SIZ17 +0.02%) +0.014 (+0.08%) and Dec copper (HGZ17 +0.08%) +0.009 (+0.29%). Friday's closes: Dec gold -13.3 (-1.03%), Dec silver -0.104 (-0.61%), Dec copper -0.0100 (-0.32%). Metals on Friday closed lower on hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams who said he expects a Fed rate hike next month and three more rate hikes next year and on the +18.198 MT increase in weekly Shanghai copper inventories to 145,471, a 7-week high.

(Click on image to enlarge)


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