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NYSE Margin Debt Dips A Mite In December: Risk Rank At No. 43

New York Stock Exchange margin debt and the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) moved in the same direction in December for the second straight month, as each was down a wee bit. The level of NYSE margin debt relinquished -$823 million, or -0.18 percent, and the share price of SPY surrendered -$0.52, or -0.25 percent.

Many equity market participants consider margin debt a long-term indicator of speculation in the stock market because of their tendency to move either higher or lower together. The NYSE has reported monthly data on securities market credit in three discrete series since 2003 and on margin debt itself since 1959.

My primary analyses of these three data series focus on two proprietary metrics, the Margin Debt Directional Indicator, or MDDI, and the Securities Market Credit Risk Rank, or SMC Risk Rank, as described in "NYSE Margin Debt As An Indicator Of Long-Term Movements… Read More …