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Danaher (DHR) Q1 Earnings: Surprise in Store for the Stock?

Danaher Corp. DHR is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results, before the opening bell on Apr 21.

Last quarter, the company’s earnings were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Notably, for the trailing four quarters, the stock posted an average positive surprise of approximately 1.2%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Broad diversification across business and end markets, considered as Danaher’s key strengths, has helped the company mitigate external challenges and bolster growth over the past few quarters. In addition, the Danaher Business System (‘‘DBS’’), the company’s diligently devised business model focusing on critical areas of quality, delivery, cost and innovation, has proved to be a major asset. It has produced tangible results in terms of core revenue growth, strong cash flow and improved earnings since its implementation.

In addition, the company’s leading brands, dominant share in multi-billion markets and solid customer base are expected to be conducive to the first-quarter results. Moreover, in the third quarter of 2015, Danaher had taken over Pall Corp. and formed Fortive Corp., a new diversified industrial growth company, which it had planned to launch as part of the split following the Pall merger deal. This decision has been significantly favoring the company’s water filtration and purification business within its Environmental business platform and is expected to support first-quarter top-line performance.

Historically, Danaher’s acquisitions have significantly contributed to its financials. During the first twelve months of 2015, the company completed 14 businesses for a total of approximately $14.5 billion, which contributed 17.5% to revenue growth during the fourth-quarter alone. We believe, these acquisitions will complement the company’s existing Environmental, Life Sciences & Diagnostics, Dental and Industrial Technologies segments, thereby favoring growth.

Also, robust sales performance of pharma and clinical end-markets are expected to drive Danaher’s quarterly results. Increasing urbanization, surge in aged and middle-class population and rising spending on healthcare & fitness have been strongly benefiting the healthcare businesses which is expected to bolster first-quarter 2016 results as well. Finally, we believe rapid market traction of the products launched during the fourth quarter, namely, MDO4000C, VERIS Molecular Diagnostics System and the X-Series mass spectrometry platform bode well for Danaher’s first quarter. 

Despite these positives, economic weakness across the globe, especially uncertainty in Latin American and some European regions like Russia and the Middle East, may weigh on the company’s financials. Moreover, prolonged softness in industrial markets in China, North America, Latin America and the Middle East has acted as headwinds for the company and may prove to be upsetting for the quarter to-be reported. Moreover, foreign currency fluctuations, which had a negative impact of around 5% during the fourth quarter, pose a threat.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Danaher is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for the company is currently pegged at 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at $1.03.

Zacks Rank: Danaher carries a Zacks Rank #2 which increases the predictive power of ESP, however, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise predictions difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revision.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Emerson Electric Co. EMR has an Earnings ESP of +3.18% and a Zacks Rank #2.

3M Company MMM has an Earnings ESP of +2.08% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH has an Earnings ESP of +1.38% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
3M CO (MMM): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DANAHER CORP (DHR): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
EMERSON ELEC CO (EMR): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PARKER HANNIFIN (PH): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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