Nick Nasad
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GBP/AUD: RBA's Shift to Neutral Increases Chances of Downside Overshoot

The RBA statement last night has helped to change the narrative around the Australian Dollar, as the central bank has eschewed its more dovish language and seems to have parked its monetary policy into neutral. Gone are references to an uncomfortably high exchange rate and showed improved confidence in the economy. As a result, we see the AUD gain across the board, and since its been beaten up so much of late (that's a technical term) there's good room for retracement in several of the AUD crosses.

  • Looking at the GBP/AUD we see a sharp reversal of the pair's gains throughout January, bringing the pair back to the 1.8260 level, which coincides with an important pivot as well as the 55-daily EMA.
  • While there might be a bounce from this support, the sharp move certainly brings a more downward bias to the pair.
  • A test of 1.8020 would be the next logical target to the downside and below that 1.79.
  • With the rather abrupt change in the RBA's stance, the possibility of overshooting to the downside here increases. This is especially true if the weakness seen recently in the GBP persists.