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The Global Financial System Stands On The Brink Of Second Credit Crisis

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HEADLINES

EU's Juncker Tells Greek PM ''Don't Assume Eurozone Will Accept Your Plans''

Greece PM Defies EU Pressure, Sticks To Pre-Election Promises

UK Chancellor Osborne Admits Grexit Contingency Plan Preparations

German CDU Party's Fuchs Says 'We Are Prepared For Grexit'

French FinMin Sapin Says Greece Needs Extension, Bridge Loan

OECD: G20 Must Focus On Productivity, Competitiveness To Boost Growth

OPEC Cuts Forecast For US Oil-Supply Growth After Price Rout

US CBO Estimates $19 Bln Jan Govt Deficit Vs $10 Bln Deficit Jan'14

US Tsy's Lew: US Economy Has Turned Corner, More Wage Growth Needed

Bank of France Forecasts Q1 French GDP Growth At +0.4%

Bank Of Italy Boosts GDP Growth Estimates On ECB Measures

China's Imports Slump, Capping Dismal January Trade Performance

Eurozone Sentiment Improves Sharply In February On ECB Bond-Buying

Apple Plans Debut Swiss Franc Bond Sale

Loews Profit From Continuing Operations Falls 13%

Hasbro Raises Quarterly Dividend 7% To $0.46; 3.3% Yield

HSBC Board Announces Quarterly Dividend Of $0.3875 Per ADS

VW's Audi Has Record January Sales, Beats Mercedes

COMMENTARY

ECB Doing 'Too Little, Too Late' To Rescue Eurozone, Experts Warn

Eurozone stimulus will be “too little, too late” to revive the currency bloc’s feeble economy, experts have warned.

If policymakers do not learn from their mistakes, then the euro project may come to a nasty end, as the euro area falls further into a deflationary spiral.

Scott Sumner, a leading monetary economist, has said that a €1.1 trillion (£820bn) quantitative easing package unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) in January will not be sufficient to reverse the euro area’s decline.

Writing for the Telegraph, Mr Sumner said that “European officials have not learned any of the lessons offered by the Japanese experience” of prolonged economic stagnation. (Telegraph – Continue Reading)

 

US Investors Primed For Midyear Rate Rise

US investors are priming themselves for the first tightening of interest rate policy this summer as strengthening employment conditions in the world’s largest economy counter worries over slowing global activity.

It is a shift in sentiment for investors who had expected the first interest rate rise from the US Federal Reserve to arrive late this year or early 2016, and comes after employment numbers released on Friday showed solid job and wage gains. (FT – Continue Reading)

The Global Financial System Stands On The Brink Of Second Credit Crisis

The world economy stands on the brink of a second credit crisis as the vital transmission systems for lending between banks begin to seize up and the debt markets fall over. The latest round of quantitative easing from the European Central Bank will buy some time but it looks like too little too late.

It was the collapse of US house prices back in 2007 that resulted in the seizure of the credit markets and banking crisis of 2008. And it would be easy to lay the blame for the 2008 financial crisis at the doorstep of American home owners, easy but wrong. The collapse of the US housing market was not the cause of the crisis, it was merely a symptom of the more insidious ills of cheap credit, low risk and the promise of another bailout round the corner.

The Keynesian pump priming that has taken place on a colossal scale across the world is failing. The Chinese economy was growing at 12pc in 2010, but that slowed to 7.7pc in 2013 and 7.4pc last year — its weakest in 24 years. Economists expect Chinese growth to slow to 7pc this year. It is the once booming property sector that has turned into a bust, and is now dragging down the wider economy as the bubble deflates.  (Telegraph – Continue Reading)

Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks To Open Wednesday In Belarus

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France have agreed to meet Wednesday in Belarus for talks aimed at a deal to end the surging pro-Russian rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

Their agreement came Sunday in four-way phone talks that followed crisis talks Friday in Moscow involving Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.  

Merkel is due in Washington Monday for talks with President Barack Obama about the fighting, which has claimed more than 5,600 lives since rebels launched their uprising 10 months ago.  A cease-fire reached in September has gone unheeded by both sides. (VOA – Continue Reading)

 

Abbott's Days As PM Are Numbered, Experts Say

Australia's prime minister may have survived a crucial leadership challenge on Monday, but that doesn't mean he'll remain in power for much longer, experts told CNBC.

"He's a goner…I don't think he'll last the twelve weeks until the critical budget [in May]," said Colin Chapman, founder and editor-in-chief of think-tank Australia and ASEAN Strategies. "He's on borrowed time and I can't see anything he can do in the coming months that can change that."

Monday's spill motion, an internal vote held between all Liberal Party members of parliament (MPs), revealed that 61 MPs voted for Abbott to remain in power, while 39 were against him. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

Leaked HSBC List Shows Who Was Banking On Swiss Secrecy

The private-banking unit of HSBC Holdings Plc made significant profits for years handling secret accounts for an array of criminals, from drug cartels and arms dealers to tax evaders and fugitive diamond merchants, according to a report released Sunday by an international news organization.

HSBC is among a handful of banks to face criminal prosecution in recent years for its role in a Swiss banking system that allowed depositors to conceal their identities, and in many cases dodge taxes or launder ill-gotten cash. The report, prepared by the Washington-based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, revealed for the first time the massive sweep of HSBC’s private-banking arm as of 2007, when it controlled $100 billion in assets and served a swath of wealthy depositors from the elite to the illicit. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

DATA

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb: 12.4 (est 3; prev 0.9)

Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jan: 98 (est 97; rev prev 97)

SNB Sight Deposits Feb-06: 384.9B (prev 383.3B)

Greek Industrial Production (YoY) Dec: -3.80% (rev prev 2.50%)

Swedish Household Consumption (MoM) Dec: -1.30% (rev prev 0.50%)

Dutch Manufacturing Production (YoY) Dec: -2.80% rev (prev 0.20%)

 

GOVERNMENT/ CENTRAL BANK NEWS & COMMENTARY

US CBO Estimates $19 Bln Jan Govt Deficit Vs $10 Bln Deficit Jan'14

US Tsy's Lew: US Economy Has Turned Corner, More Wage Growth Needed

The Fed's Republican Tries Talking Republicans Out Of 'Audit The Fed'

EU's Juncker Tells Greek PM: Don't Assume Euro Zone Will Accept Your Plans

Greece PM Defies EU Pressure, Sticks To Pre-Election Promises

Greek FinMin Varoufakis Says Euro Will Collapse If Greece Exits

UK Chancellor Osborne: Planning For Possible Grexit

BoE's Carney Says Worried About Financial Reform Fatigue Globally

OECD Warns On Reform Slowdown

German CDU Party's Fuchs Says 'We Are Prepared For Grexit'

Bank Of Italy Boosts GDP Growth Estimates On ECB Measures

Italy's Padoan Says Europe Should Be Bolder In Boosting Investments

Abbott Defeats Challenge, Yet Leadership Speculation Lingers

BoJ's Morimoto: Watch Various Price Data, Not Just Oil Prices

 

GOVERNMENT/ BOND NEWS & COMMENTARY

Greek Bond Yields Spike As Tsipras' Speech Sounds Alarm

Germany Sold EUR1.895 Bln In 6-Month Bills (avg yield -0.209%; bid cover 2.6)

 

EQUITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

US Stock Futures Fall As Bears End Hibernation

Grexit, China Growth Fears Weigh On European Assets

China Stocks Fall Further On Bad Data Surprise

China's First Stock Options Trading Debuts In Shanghai

Loews Profit From Continuing Operations Falls 13 Pct

Hasbro Reports Revenue, Operating Profit And Net Earnings Growth For FY 2014

HSBC Admits Swiss Bank Failings Over Client Taxes

HSBC Board Announces Quarterly Dividend Of $0.3875 Per ADS

US Banks Say Soaring Dollar Puts Them At Disadvantage

VW's Audi Has Record January Sales, Beats Mercedes

Carrefour Says CEO Recovering From Surgery

Credit Suisse To Launch Speciality Finance Company ? WSJ

 

CURRENCY/ COMMODITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

GBP/USD Almost Unchanged In Quiet Trade

EUR/USD: Euro Trims Gains, Remains Above $1.13

USD/JPY: Yen Ticks Higher Amid Risk-Off Trades On ?Grexit? Fears

Gold Futures Edge Higher Amid Greece Jitters

Copper Edges Higher After Chinese Data, Nickel Down As Stocks Rise

Oil Dips After Weak Chinese Trade Data

OPEC Cuts Forecast For US Oil-Supply Growth After Price Rout

 

EMERGING MARKET NEWS & COMMENTARY

Politics, US Yields Weigh On EMs, Naira Hits New Low

China's Imports Slump, Capping Dismal January Trade Performance

China Hikes Retail Fuel Prices, First In Eight Months

Russia Inflation Shock No Reason To Raise Rates, Nabiullina Says

Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks To Open Wednesday In Belarus

Economists See Zero Growth In Brazil In 2015 ? Poll