Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

AUD/JPY - Rising Wedge vs. Falling Trendline

The AUD/JPY has been rallying in February from a low on the year around 89.50 to a high last week near 94.00. It has stalled under 94 since. Also, the rally since February has been in the form of a rising wedge as we can see in the 4H chart below:

AUD/JPY 4H Chart 3/5
(click to enlarge)

While price have crossed above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs, which shows loss of bearish bias, the RSI has not been able to push above 70, which shows lack of bullish momentum. On the daily chart, we can see that the February rally is flirting with a falling trendline coming down from the Nov. 2014 high around 102.84.

While price seems to be crossing above this line, we can see that there is no bullish breakout. It is more of a tentative sideways crack. Plus, price is still holding under the 50-day SMA, and the daily RSI is still under 60.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart 3/5
(click to enlarge)

With the prevailing downtrend still intact, if AUD/JPY slides below 93.00, the market may be in a bearish continuation. First ,there will be support around 91.50-91.70. Below that, the 89.50 low on the year comes into play.

If price can push above 94, and then turn the 93.50-94 area as support, then, we might have a bullish outlook towards the 96-96.50 area, where the 200- and 100-day SMAs reside.