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AUD/NZD Continues to Dig Into Fresh Record Lows

After a bullish correction at the beginning of March, AUD/NZD has resumed its downtrend. The 4H chart shows the market sharply retreating from the 1.0525 area. Price fell below the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart, showing revival of the bearish bias. The RSI has fallen below 40, which showed loss of the bullish momentum from that early-March rally. 

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 3/30
(click to enlarge)

Since the retreat from 1.0525, price has marked a fresh record low at 1.0225 before consolidating again in a flag or pennant pattern. Once again, price held below the 50-period SMA, and the RSI held below 60. These are all signs that bears are in charge of this market in this time-frame. At the end of last week, there was a sharp bearish breakout that brought AUD/NZD to another fresh record low at 1.0217. 

This coming week, AUD/NZD looks poised to continue even lower and might break below the 1.02 handle. If there is a pullback to start the week, look for resistance in the 1.0280-1.03 area, with downside risk at least back to 1.0217 and 1.02.