Nick Nasad
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CAD/JPY: Testing Support of 3-Sessin Range - Break-Out or Fake-Out?

The CAD/JPY has set up in a fairly tight 50 pip range over the last 3 trading sessions, which the resistance levels in this range (around 94.05) matching up quite nicely with the 200-EMA (in gray).

  • Support for this range is near the 93.55 area which is an old level of resistance turned to support.
  • The question is will this support level hold for a 4th time? We have already seen it pierced at the start of the NY session, and the question is will this was a break-out or a a fake-out.

I was short overnight in this pair already, and so will see if we can get a move through the support level and towards 93.30, while I will adjust my stop from its level above the old level of resistance and most likely move to near break-even. A push above 93.75 will bring me back to my entry level, and at that point I don't really like the look of the break-down trade and would be OK with exiting at that point and looking for the next opportunity.

- Nick