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AUD/JPY Harmonic Pattern Rally after Topping

AUD/JPY may have topped after a Feb-April rally. On the daily chart we can that price formed a double top, pulled back at first, then fell below a rising trendline to finally form a price top. We see another pullback now. Let's see if traders will again respect the price top.


(audjpy daily chart, 6/1)

Bearish Outlook after Topping:
In the daily chart, you can also see price break below the 50-day SMA, but stay above the 200, and 100-day SMAs. Let's not read too much into this as a bullish sign. The moving averages have been sideways, and the Feb-April rally is only one bullish swing that gave the moving averages a slight bullish orientation. Because there is no strong bearish price action yet. In a sideways market, the moving averages appear brutally lagging.

Still, ability to stay below the 50-day SMA, and a subsequent break below the 100 and 200-day SMA (a break below 93.00 will do) will be a strong indication that the market is NOT bullish, but rather Neutral, and perhaps bearish in the short-term.


(audjpy 4H, 6/1)

Harmonic Pattern:
Looking at the 4H chart, we see that the rally is completing an ABCD, or harmonic retracement pattern to 61.8% retracement. 

If the bearish outlook proposed is to materialize, then the 95.00 level should be a strong resistance, with the confluence of retracement pattern, moving averages on both daily and 4h charts, and a key fibonacci level.

A break above 95.00 therefore, weakens the bearish outlook and reintroduces the bullish continuation scenario.