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Overview: As Equites Chop, Bonds Find Direction; GBP Star Performer, While CAD Laggard

The Chop Fest in US Equities Continues:

The S&P500 continued to move sideways today, with today's price action contained by resistance at the 1842.50 level and support found just above the 200-hourly moving average. Without any key macro releases from the US the market remains focused on corporate earnings, but the results have been mixed and therefore trading directionless. My bias is for sideways action to continue, but the more times that the index tests the same resistance level and is unable to push above, the higher the chance that the index could see a retracement on a risk-averse development.

US Bonds Show Some Direction as Prices Fall, Meaning Yields Rise:

While equities were generally sideways, the US bond market (the above chart being 10-year US bond prices) have showed some direction, downward. As we can see in the 4-hour chart, we have a possible double top forming, though a break through the 123.75 level would be needed to confirm that. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and that is important to certain market participants - especially large institutions in Japan - that may be tempted to buy more US debt, which helps boost the USD/JPY, which we saw in today's session.

GBP A Star Performer as Unemployment Rate Drops:


In the currency space the GBP rallied strongly against its rivals as macro data continued to surprise on the upside, something I have talked about a lot in my posts. As a result market participants will be pricing in the fact that the Bank of England will be the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates, a narrative that has helped the GBP/USD rally strongly over the last several months. I wrote about the GBP/USD earlier today, and some long term targets to look for in the pair. I also wrote about the EUR/GBP and showed the long term analysis for that pair here recently.

Therefore, lets look at the GBP/JPY which is making a nice move today, and could be se to make another 170 pip move in the short term. Nothing too complex here. As the daily chart shows above, the pair has pushed through a recent downward sloping resistance trendline, and has run up against a previous pivot from early January at 173.00. If the pair managed to push above that level on further momentum, then the high from the turn of the year at 174.70 will be the next target, and while there may be a short term pullback before this move happens, my bias is for the pair to reach that high in the near term.

CAD Weak on BOC Interest Rate Decision:

While the GBP was a star performer the weakling today was definitely the USD/CAD as the Bank of Canada interest rate statement was received as generally dovish. As a result the CAD was sold off by market participants. Looking at the USD/CAD, we see that the pair pushed through the 1.10 level and now has some good trendlines with which to make an upward sloping channel. I think the pressure remains on this CAD and my bias would be to buy dips in this pair.