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AUDJPY: Testing Year lows

Australia’s economy grew by just 0.2% in the second quarter, below expectations of 0.4 %, largely as a result of reduced mining and construction activity and a decline in exports of 3% during the quarter. Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.8% during the year, which the Australian Bureau of Statistics said was “the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961-62.” Despite this, Australia has now recorded 24 straight years of growth.”

Japan’s economy contracted in April-June due to weak consumption and experts and analysts expect only a modest rebound in the current quarter, keeping the Bank of Japan (BoJ) under pressure to further ease monetary policy. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may not need to expand monetary policy in October even if it cuts its growth and price forecasts, as long as inflation expectations are well anchored.

Since the start of the year the currency fell more than 15.0% and is in a bearish phase since mid-June, testing the lows of the year at 82.044. Last week the AUDJPY plunged with a narrow range and closed in the red near the low of the week. Stochastic is showing an oversold market but even with the currency well into oversold territory, we should not fight the strong downward trend.

Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci extension at 75.445 on a break below Year low at 82.044 (scenario 1) or a break above the Fibonacci extension at 83.79 could push the currency up to a weekly resistance at 86.39 (scenario 2).