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EUR/AUD Threatening to Form a Double Bottom

EUR/USD has been sliding choppily in February from a high early on in the month at 1.4895 down to a 1.4315 low this week. The 4H chart below shows this choppy decline in a slightly bearish channel. Now, price is testing this channel support, and is forming a potential double bottom.

EUR/AUD 4H Chart 2/27
(click to enlarge)

Now, if price rallies above 1.44, the double bottom would be complete, and there would be a near-term bullish outlook towards the 1.45 level. There is also upside potential towards the 1.46 level even if the market is still bearish. 

When we look at the daily chart, we can see that 1.46 will keep price under a falling speedline (as well as the channel resistance in the 4H chart). EUR/AUD would also hold below the SMAs if it can hold below 1.46. However, a break above 1.46 can open up the 1.48 and the 1.49 highs.

Now, if price does not break above 1.44, or does but is rejected at 1.46 and falls back below 1.4450, then, we are likely still in February's bearish mode, and the next key support levels will be 

1.42 (a common support from November 2014)
1.40 (a support in late January, also the 2015-low)
1.38 (the 2014 low made in September)

EUR/AUD Daily Chart


(click to enlarge)