Nick Nasad
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AUD/USD Follow-Up: Aussie Pushes Through Key Technical Levels

Last time we looked at this pair from the daily timeframe we noticed a "slated" inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, where the neckline also had a confluence with the 55-ema.

You can scroll down for the original analysis.

Right now, what we are seeing is that the questions we posed? Does the 55-EMA and the neckline hold? Do we have a dip that we can buy if there's more buying pressure?

Well, here's the next couple of candles since our original post.

  1. We did have a bounce down off the 55-ema, which lasted just one session (Thursday).
  2. The bulls then pushed above the 55-ema (@ 0.9180) once again, but were unable to close above it.
  3. In today's (Monday) session, the pair managed to once again break the 55-EMA, running into a key resistance area at the 0.9230 area.
  4. The pair is a bit stretched in the shorter time-frames, so let's see the reaction at this next resistance.
  5. A break through 0.9230 would give confidence to the new found bullishness of this pair. 
  6. Our original price target (a measured move projection of the H&S pattern comes in around 0.9530.
  7. Before that we have an important horizontal pivot at 0.9310 (highlighted above)
Depending on price action, my current bias will be first to look for a dip in the short term as the pair is a bit stretched. Then, I may look to scale in a long position in this pair on good retracements. The bullish set-up is invalidated if we we fall back below the 55-EMA, and we become bearish if the pivots created by the previous 2 bearish candles (@0.9110) are broken.

- Nick

This was the main analysis from 09/04 - Slanted H&S Looking to Break-out? Or Does Trendline/55EMA Hold?:

  • In the AUD/USD pair this has meant a rally from the lows on Friday near .89 to Wednesday's high at 0.9165.
  • The interesting to note here is like with other commodity currencies pairs we see a pattern emerging in the daily time-frame, though this one isn't particularly conventional. What we can see is we have a sideways/slanted head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline that is a downward sloping trendline. This can be seen from the green thick lines I have over price action (sorry for the chart purists out there).
  • We test that trendline currently, which also lines up quite well with the 55-EMA in this timeframe. And the pair has broken its long-term trendline descending from the highs set back in April.
  • If we measures the distance from the neckline to the apex of the "H&S pattern" (the red line) and project that from the neckline (the 2nd neckline), we get a target of near 0.9530.
  • In the short term we have a few resistance levels to use as horizontal pivots including 0.9230, 0.9290, and 0.9935.