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Teva (TEVA) Q1 Earnings: Will the Stock Deliver a Surprise?

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2016 earnings results on May 9, before the opening bell. Teva’s fourth quarter earnings were in line with expectations. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

At the time of announcing fourth quarter results, Teva had guided towards first quarter revenues of $4.7 billion - $4.9 billion. First quarter revenues will continue to be impacted by exchange rates. Meanwhile, earnings are expected in the range of $1.16 - $1.20 per share.

Teva’s generic segment could continue seeing some weakness as in the fourth quarter when generic segment revenues declined 9%. Revenues from the U.S. generics business had declined 15% reflecting a decline in sales of the generic versions of Lovaza, Pulmicort, and Xeloda. During the first quarter, Teva launched its generic version of Ortho Tri-Cyclen Lo and another dosage strength of its generic version of Pulmicort Respules.

The EU generics segment will remain under pressure with sales being affected by macro-economic conditions, currency fluctuations and healthcare reforms.

However, Teva’s position in the generics market should strengthen with the completion of the acquisition of Allergan’s AGN generics segment.

Meanwhile, in the branded segment, investors will remain focused on the Copaxone franchise’s performance considering the 20 mg version of the multiple sclerosis treatment is facing generic competition in the form of Glatopa.

Teva continues to focus on its cost reduction program.

Surprise History

Teva’s performance has been strong with the company reporting positive earnings surprises in three of the last four quarters. The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is a positive 5.44%.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Teva is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings Surprise Prediction or Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +1.77%. The Most Accurate estimate is $1.15 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Teva is $1.13 per share.

Zacks Rank #4 (Sell): The combination of Zacks Rank #4 and earnings ESP of +1.77% makes it difficult to conclusively show that Teva is likely to beat estimates this quarter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for Chiasma, Inc. CHMA is +4.76% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 11.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals JAZZ has an Earnings ESP of +6.11% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. It will be reporting first-quarter results on May 10.

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ALLERGAN PLC (AGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
JAZZ PHARMACEUT (JAZZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
TEVA PHARM ADR (TEVA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHIASMA INC (CHMA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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