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Investment idea - Actavis
16 march 2015

US pharmaceutical giant Actavis (ACT) recently held an investor meeting at which it outlined the following growth drivers:

- The company continues to deliver double-digit growth. According to the financial report for Q4 2014, revenue increased by 44% y-o-y to USD 4.01 bn, outstripping the consensus of USD 3.91 bn. Revenue in the North American division of brand name drugs soared to USD 1.8 bn from USD 635.1 mn in the same period a year earlier. Financial results spiked due to the acquisition of Forest Laboratories last year, as well as good dynamics of products sold under its own label. Revenue in the North American division of generics rose 10% to USD 1.14 bn, while international sales fell 11.5% to USD 443.3 mn. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 80% y-o-y to USD 1.5 bn, while EBITDA margin advanced 7.6 pps to 37%. Adjusted EPS was up 23% y-o-y to USD 3.91, matching the median forecast. The company generated operating cash flow worth USD 811.6 mn, which is 24.5% more than in the Q4 2013.

- The company continues to acquire its rivals. Actavis acquired Forest Laboratories last year. Durata and Auden Mckenzie were purchased this year. Actavis will complete acquisition of Allegran at the end of Q2. All these acquisitions will significantly expand the company's portfolio of drugs and strengthen its position on the market. Notably, Actavis plans to use Allegran name as its corporate name after the acquisition is completed.

The company released its guideline for FY15. Actavis expects EPS (excluding acquisition of Allergan) to reach USD 16.3-17.3, which matches annual growth of 17-24% (previous forecast was USD 15.60-16.80). Revenue will increase to USD 15 bn (up 17%).

I believe that synergies from recent acquisitions will boost the company’s shares. Taking this into account, I raised the target price of Actavis shares to USD 330 and assign the share a Buy recommendation in the mid-term. The short-term technical target is USD 310.

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Investment idea - Actavis

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