Fan Yang
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S&P500 - Fade the Rally?

Sentiment is back on to start this week, reversing some of the risk-off decline seen in the S&P500. 

(S&P500 4H Chart)

There is a chance the market has taken its breather and is ready to rally again, but as Russia gets the ball rolling in annexing Crimea, I can see risk aversion coming back into the markets.

Fade the rally: Looking at last week's action as an initial sign of short-term bearish consolidation/correction, I am considering fading the current rally.

Price will be challenged by a falling channel and previous pivot resistance around 1868. 

The 4H stochastic is above 80 and RSI near 60, a combination I like to see before getting ready to fade a rally. 

A push above 1875 however could be a sign against the bearish outlook.

Bearish target: Although the outlook is bearish in the short-term, it is in a very bullish medium and long term context. Therefore, my bearish target for the S&P500 is 1800, but first it has to breach the 1830 area.