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This Is What Happens, Janet, When You Take The Punchbowl Away

It appears the "Fed is ending QE because the economy is recovering" narrative is failing (as the world wakes up to the fact that The Fed is being forced to exit due to having broken the markets). In the September FOMC meeting, Yellen put the final nail in the QE coffin by confirming the money-printing would end in October. This is what has happened since then...

 

 

But, as we have noted numerous times before; the "taper" is all about economic cover for a forced move the Fed has to make:

1. Deficits are shrinking and the Fed has less and less room for its buying

 

2. Under the surface, various non-mainstream technicalities are breaking in the markets due to the size of the Fed's position (repo markets, bond specialness, and fail-to-delivers among them).

 

3. Sentiment is critical; if the public starts to believe (as Kyle Bass warned) that the central bank is monetizing the government's debt (which it clearly is), then the game accelerates away from them very quickly - and we suspect they fear we are close to that tipping point

 

4. The rest of the world is not happy. As Canada noted early in the year, and US monetary policy was discussed at the G-20

Simply put, they are cornered and need to Taper entirely; no matter how bad the macro data and we are sure 'trends' and longer-term horizons will come to their rescue in defending the prime dealers' clear agreement that it is time...