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Retirely in The things you own end up owning you,

The reason that the stock market is reaching all-time highs? Two names: Donald Trump

Hamm, the founder, chief executive and chairman of Continental Resources Inc., told CNBC on Monday that the market’s recent moves could be dubbed the “Trump rally.”

“Business people across the world are seeing the possibility of Donald Trump being president, and this is a big thing that I believe is inspiring people to put money here in America instead of Germany or other places where we have lots of things going on,” said Hamm, who is described as Trump’s energy adviser and is slated to give a speech in support of the presumptive nominee at the Republican National Convention this week.

Bring down the EU at any point of our choosing.

http://blog.mpettis.com/2016/06/rebalancing-wealth-transfers...​g​rowth-of-chinese-debt/


See Claire June 27, 2016 at 1:50 pm

1. Britain is one of the world’s few relatively large importing countries.
2. For the rest of the Eruozone (mainly Germany) to export to Britain required a cheap EUR with respect to the pound.
3. Although it’s not really clear what “Brexit” really means gong forward, let’s suppose that it means no more free trade between the island and the mainland. In that case, Euroland must find substitute buyer for its goods or, more likely, in a world lacking demand, the markets will make it harder for Euroland to export, likely by bidding up the Euro.
Similarly, all the public announcements notwithstanding, if somebody ends the free trade agreement between the two zones, it should be Britain, which, like the US, has basically been struggling from the effects of an artificially high currency brought about by “beggar thy neighbour” policies. How artificially overvalued is the pound? I guess we’ll find out over the next couple of weeks…
4. Europe is rightly selling off because it lost one of its key export markets (either if the European Ministers are serious about making it difficult to trade with Britain, which they can not afford to seriously do, or simply because Britain refuses to allow such large and persistent trade deficits with Europe, which is more likely). This will increase unemployment in the Eurozone. More importantly, Europe has managed to stay afloat largely by the whole game of “extend and pretend” whereby everybody pretends that the Sapin-like countries can pay off their debts and therefore the major European banks (Deutschebank is just one of them) are not completely insolvent. Anything that increases the likelihood of other countries leaving the Eurozone puts increasing pressure on those banks (and, I think, should drive the Euro higher, so long as Germany is part of the zone. If Germany leaves, then the Euro will drop and the Deutschemark will rise). In either case, the countries with the rising currency will experience higher unemployment unless and until more domestic demand is stimulated.
5. With British exports rising and imports falling, an increasing burden falls on the US to absorb this demand (Britain is not nearly as significant as the US, of course, but it’s just one more straw on the camel’s back, and the camel is already caryying a very heavy load). That burden will even further increase if the disasters that are the European banks actually start going bankrupt in a cascading manner, or if other countries break off from the EU.

So what happens if we give up imports?

The market is at all time highs because
1) a) Economies and governments the world over are unraveling and people are running like hell to safety, i.e. the USA, and b) every other damned investment here pays next to nothing.
2) The federal reserve (and all the other central banks for that matter) is printing money and there’s nowhere else for it to go, see 1)b).