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USDCHF: Pauses after strong gains

Last week the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept the negative interest rate unchanged at -0.75% and Swiss trade balanced came out worse than expected. Also the US Federal Reserve meeting result in downgrading GDP and inflation forecasts for this year and next, and anticipated the FED will discuss a rate hike in June.

During next week, the US will release its inflation figures for February, which if above expectations, may gave the greenback a nice boost, as it will signal the FED will have less to worry about.

This week on the economic calendar we have From the US the consumer price index in February that is expected to rise from -0.7% to 0.2% but durable goods orders in February are estimated to fall from 2.8% to 0.2% and the gross domestic product annualized in the 4th quarter, with a previous number of 5%.

USDCHF fell during Friday’s session, still trading below the 10-day moving average and close near the low of the day just shy below Thursday low. The pair is in an accumulation phase but continues to find support at 0.9649 and we might have a golden cross this week. The stochastic in showing an extreme bearish momentum and crossed below de mid line.

Expecting upward move to 1.012 on a bounce of a daily support at 0.9649 (scenario 1) or a break below the 200-day moving average at 0.9490 could throw price to a daily support at 0.8792 (scenario 2).