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AUD/NZD - Bullish Breakout from a Falling Channel

The AUD/NZD started July making a high on the year at 1.1428. Then,after retreating to almost 1.10, it rebounded again but failed to reach the 1.1428 high before another bearish attempt.

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 7/30
(click to enlarge)

In the 4H chart, we can see the pair falling from 1.1378 to 1.0880 in the last couple of weeks. We can say that the pair was falling in a falling channel. This week however, this falling channel is broken, and the AUD/NZD is thus signaling a bullish outlook. The breakout candle is strong and convincing, but we should still see price climb above 1.11 and the 4H RSI above 60 before this is a full, convincing breakout.

Also, we should find support in the 1.0980-1.10 area on a pullback to confirm that the market has indeed bottomed out. Because the trend heading into July was already bullish, the breakout today signals bullish continuation. That means, the 1.1378 to 1.1428 highs in July and 2015 is likely to be tested again with risk of price extending to 1.15.