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Update: A Look At Arch Coal's 2015 Guidance

Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI) announced its Q4 2014 earnings on February 3 and gave 2015 guidance for production, costs and pricing on committed tonnage. Arch Coal's 2015 guidance is mostly in line with my previous expectations. It expects to sell 124 million to 136 million tons of thermal coal versus my expectation for 126 million tons. It expects to sell 6.3 million to 7 million tons of metallurgical coal versus my expectation for 7 million tons. I had expected Powder River Basin revenue per ton to be $13.50, but it appears that Arch Coal will be slightly lower than that. It currently has approximately 90% of its 2015 production committed and priced at $13.39 per ton, so I'd expect the final revenue per ton number to come out to around $13.20, which is still an improvement over 2014's $12.86 per ton. Appalachian steam and metallurgical coal realized prices are likely to come in below my previous expectations as well, due to some deterioration in those markets over the past couple months, with the steam coal affected by low natural gas prices and metallurgical coal pricing affected by a strong US dollar. Revenues are probably going to end up around $75 million less than I had previously expected in…