Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

USD/JPY at Triangle Support after Consumer Confidence Data

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence  number came in at 78.1 for February, which missed forecasts around 80.2. January's number was revised down from 80.7 to 79.4. 

Looks like the market has an initial "risk-off" reaction. But to me, I believe this is not such a bad reading. 

(CB Consumer Confidence since 2005: Click to see full size)

When looking at the trend, you can see CB's consumer confidence reading crawling back up after the 2007 and 2008 dip. It is subdued, but the rising trend is still what policy makers look at, so I don't think they will be bogged down by the short-term outlook of people during these cold months.
In my opinion, extension of the reaction will require some other risk-off factors.
Risk off gives USD and JPY some strength, but since this is poor US data, it gives JPY more strength.
USD/JPY

(USD/JPY 4H chart: click for full size)
The USD/JPY remains in an ascending triangle. The JPY strength after the confidence report pushed USD/JPY to about 102, which challenges February's rising trendline. 

Is this report enough to break down this pattern? What about the flip-side. If the market still has bullish momentum, then we are looking at a S20-R40 development. You can see that the previous time stochastic high 20 and RSI high 40, the market rallied. Will this pattern hold again? If it does, will it rally to challenge the triangle resistance around 102.70 again? 

Bearish break scenario:

A break and hold below 102 will start to shift the outlook toward continuing 2014's bearish trend. This will suggest further short-term bearish attempt, within the context of a 2-year bull run.