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Market Comments for September 16, 2014

 

Yesterday the market left a large red bar on the daily chart. It was a decisive day for the QQQ as it broke below the consolidation on the daily chart and below the last 17 trading days. Actually only the last seven were really critical as they were part of the wider consolidation. As we discussed, this break will likely lead to a full retracement down to the support area at “3”, at a very minimum.

The SPY did not leave as bearish of a bar. The daily chart of the SPY never had a large red bar and actually closed with a bit of a bottoming tail. However this is not terribly relevant as the relative strength today in the SPY is only because the relative weakness over the prior four days. The daily charts are looking about the same in terms of retracement from the prior run. However the minor support areas are quite different. It is likely that the minor support area on the QQQ at “3” is the proper location for the market pullback. The SPY is sitting on its minor retracement (3) right now but that is not likely the proper location for minor support so it will likely fail.