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AUD/USD at the Crossroad but Building a Bullish Case.

AUD/USD is trading at the crossroad. The 4H chart shows a market that has been bearish. For the most part, it still looks bearish as it has made lower highs and lower lows since the 0.9474 high on July 23. Price has fallen below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) and has since held below the 200-period SMA. The RSI has tagged below 30, but has not pushed above 70.

On the otherhand, you can see price trading sideways since the latest downswing from 0.9373 to 0.9240. Price has remained within this range for the last couple of weeks. Within this range, there seems to be a bullish development. There is a price low made during the 8/6-8/11 sessions. Today, after falling from about 0.9340, AUD/USD held above this price bottom by respecting the 0.9280 level as support. The RSI was held above 40. Price returned above the 50-, and 100-period SMAs. These are signs that the AUD/USD is building the case for a bullish outlook.

(AUD/USD 4H Chart 8/20)

When you look at the daily chart, you can see that the bullish case would be in-line with the bullish trend in 2014. This trend has slowed and stalled since April, but as long as price holds above the 0.92 support, there is a bullish bias. You can describe price as neutral, or neutral-bullish since April. With the daily RSI holding above 40, I would say the bullish momentum is maintained. However, price needs to trade back above the 100-, and 50-day SMAs, before more confidence pours in for the bullish outlook. A break above the August high at 0.9374 should be able to do that, so look for this bullish signal to affirm the current build-up towards the bullish outlook.

(AUD/USD Daily Chart 8/20)