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Will Q4 Earnings Hold a Surprise for Logitech (LOGI) Stock?

Logitech International SA LOGI is set to report fourth-quarter and full year fiscal 2016 earnings results after the market closes on Apr 27.

Logitech has had a solid earnings track record over the past few quarters. The leading computer peripheral equipments provider beat estimates in three of the four preceding quarters, delivering a striking average earnings beat of 53%.

Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Logitech has been benefiting from its robust business model that focuses on maximizing profit in PC peripherals and is expanding into new business categories.

In the quarter under review, the company expanded its mechanical gaming keyboard portfolio with Logitech G610 Orion Brown and the Logitech G610 Orion Red. It also launched Logitech G810 Orion Spectrum, Logitech G900 Chaos Spectrum, and Logitech G502 Proteus Spectrum gaming mice.

In addition, Logitech launched Logitech ConferenceCam Kit in collaboration with Intel’s NUC video conferencing system. Logitech’s robust product portfolio will enable it to unlock further growth opportunities, especially in the fast-growing gaming peripherals and video collaboration categories.

We expect that Logitech’s fourth-quarter results will be boosted by the growth these segments.

In recent times, Logitech has focused on pursuing innovation and expanding its product lines, especially on the gaming industry front. The recent trend that has taken the gaming universe by storm is virtual reality gaming. This type of gaming not only allows users to enjoy 3D experience in the virtual world but also lets them interact with characters in the game. Logitech’s initiatives to promote the latest fad of virtual reality gaming will likely help boost its revenue growth.

Furthermore, Logitech’s is dedicatedly following its three-year turnaround plan to streamline operational costs. We expect its cost-cutting initiatives to drive up profits and expand margins significantly.

However, Logitech’s Tablet and other accessories segment continues to decline significantly, and could cut back its profitability somewhat. In addition, Logitech’s business is prone to be affected by currency translation as the company derives the highest portion of its revenues from outside the Americas. Weaknesses in political and macroeconomic conditions, especially in Russia and Ukraine, remain concerns.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Logitech will beat earnings estimates in this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for the stock currently stands at 0.00%. This is because both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the Most Accurate estimate are pegged at 4 cents.

Zacks Rank: Although Logitech’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, we also need to have a positive ESP to be confident of an earnings surprise call.

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Align Technology Inc. ALGN has an Earnings ESP of +12.82% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. It is scheduled to report results on Apr 28.

SkyWest Inc. SKYW has an Earnings ESP of +16.00% and holds a Zacks Rank #2. It is slated to report results on Apr 28.

Inphi Corporation IPHI has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. It is expected to report results on Apr 28.

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SKYWEST INC (SKYW): Free Stock Analysis Report
LOGITECH INTL (LOGI): Free Stock Analysis Report
ALIGN TECH INC (ALGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
INPHI CORP (IPHI): Free Stock Analysis Report
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