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What's in the Cards for Textron (TXT) this Earnings Season?

Textron Inc. TXT is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results before the opening bell on Apr 20. Last quarter, the company had posted a negative earnings surprise of 2.41%. Out of the past four trailing quarters, it beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two, with an average negative surprise of 0.46%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Textron’s geographically diverse network of aircraft, defense & intelligence, industrial and finance businesses negates any specific business risk. The company is globally known for its established and valuable brand names, such as Bell Helicopter, Cessna Aircraft Company, Jacobsen, Kautex, E-Z-GO and Greenlee.

During the fourth quarter 2015 earnings call, the company did not provide any guidance for the first quarter of 2016. Nevertheless, it provided its outlook for the entire year. Textron expects revenues to witness solid growth at the Aviation, Industrial and Systems segments.

The company anticipates capital investments in research and development to remain flat year over year. While this may hurt margins initially, it will eventually lead to more robust organic and bottom-line growth.

However, the company expects the commercial helicopter market to remain under pressure, especially in the medium segment in 2016. Textron also foresees flattish growth at Bell Helicopter. Soft V-22 Osprey shipments and weakness in the global commercial helicopter market could affect segment revenues and dampen the top line in 2016.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Textron is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. However, that is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -1.89%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 52 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged slightly higher at 53 cents.

Zacks Rank: Though Textron’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, we need a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

A Stock that Warrants a Look

Here is a stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. SPR has an Earnings ESP of +6.60% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will report quarterly results on Apr 29, 2016.

Other Upcoming Releases

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. HII is scheduled to report quarterly results on May 5.

The Boeing Company BA is scheduled to report quarterly results on Apr 27.

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BOEING CO (BA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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HUNTINGTON INGL (HII): Free Stock Analysis Report
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