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Prudential (PRU) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will Stock Gain?

We expect multiline insurer Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter results on May 4 after market close.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Prudential has the right combination of two key ingredients to beat estimates.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +0.42%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of $2.39 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38. A positive ESP is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the company.

Zacks Rank: Prudential carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating on earnings.

Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.  

What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?

Minimal competition in the variable annuities market is likely to help Prudential’s first-quarter results.

A diversified product offering and prudent acquisitions should drive premiums higher and penetration into the pension risk transfer business should favor the Retirement segment.

As always, the company is banking on its Japanese business and continued share buyback to boost its profitability.

However, the U.S. Group insurance business may have suffered due to poor disability margins. Also, the still soft low interest rate environment may have put pressure on investment income. An added concern is unfavorable forex which is likely to weigh on the results.

With respect to the surprise trend, Prudential surpassed expectations in two of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 4.75%.

Prudential’s share price has been fluctuating over the last few days. We wait to see how the stock reacts to the company’s first-quarter performance.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as even these  have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. AMG has an Earnings ESP of +0.68% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings results on May 3.

Lincoln National Corporation LNC has an Earnings ESP of +0.67% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings results on May 4.

Physicians Realty Trust DOC has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings results on May 5.

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
AFFIL MANAGERS (AMG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
LINCOLN NATL-IN (LNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PRUDENTIAL FINL (PRU): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PHYSICIANS RLTY (DOC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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