Malcolm Graham
All posts from Malcolm Graham
Malcolm Graham in Analytics & more!,

The Yellen inflation dashboard — the data that will determine when rates go up

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen told Congress that she and her colleagues will raise short-term interest rates when they are “reasonably confident” that inflation is moving back toward their 2% annual target.

Where will that confidence come from? As identified by Yellen, other Fed officials, and minutes of recent Fed meetings, here’s a look at the dashboard of indicators that she will focus on.

First is the Fed’s formal target, the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) . Notice the sharp decline. It is when this levels out and looks like it will turn higher that the Fed might act. It is been running below the Fed’’s 2% target ever since March 2012.